Sunday, March 6, 2011

Market Trends


1.       US 10 Year T-Note Yield – It's early to say that the positive trend turned negative on Friday when the bond rose and the yields went down to 3.492, as long as the yield is above 3.49 the trend is still upward with the same targets that I wrote in the last post. The economy situation also supports in yields rising and the TBT ETF is still above 38.5, so as long as all conditions will not change the trend for rising yields is positive.
2.         S&P 500 – nothing changed on Friday, still waiting to break 1333 or down at 1305. Be careful before investing for long until you will see a clear upward trend. When I look to invest for long in stocks it's very difficult to find something good in those days so be careful…
3.       CURRENCIES-
EUR / USD – On the way to 1.45-1.5, a small correction (even of one or two days) is needed in order to continue the positive.
AUD / USD – very soon the AUD will start to move, hard to say which direction because it has a very strong resistance at 1.02 and small support
In the line of the upward channel, until the end of the week we will see the target
4.       Commodities
GOLD on the way to 1600, it looks like there is a need for a small correction, but don’t be surprised if it continues to climb without a small correction, with the situations in the world now especially Libya and the worry about Saudi Arabia we might see one day a jump of hundreds of dollars.
Crude Oil – on the way to 130, also like Gold it need to make a small correction, but everything can happen now.
Silver – very difficult to analyze the silver and that’s why I am not investing in silver, only day trading rarely
5.       Volatility Index – looks like it is starting to create an upward  trend but like the market it's not so clear so only on Tuesday I believe we will see the real trend, Meanwhile the VXX is very good for day trading.
6.       Japan – Marc Faber recently mentioned that he is "bullish" on Japan. I agree with him, it looks like that the index is on the way to 13000, but if the world market will fall so will Japan.

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